A Wall Street Journal bestseller, now in paperback. Poker champion turned decision strategist Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions. Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there's always information hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes, and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.
A Wall Street Journal bestseller, now in paperback. Poker champion turned decision strategist Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions. Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there's always information hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes, and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.
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Find Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts Annie Duke in PDF, EPUB, ebook, audiobook, print, or library editions.
Find Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts Annie Duke in PDF, EPUB, ebook, audiobook, print, or library editions.
4 books in catalog
Decision-making strategy under conditions of uncertainty forms the centerpiece of practical non-fiction exploring cognitive psychology and risk evaluation. Author and decision strategist Annie Duke bridges academic behavioral science and high-stakes real-world strategy to help readers navigate choices when outcome certainty is impossible. Her national bestseller, Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts, introduced general audiences to framing decisions through probabilistic thinking rather than emotional bias or hindsight.
Born Anne LaBarr Lederer on September 13, 1965, Duke pursued academic studies in cognitive psychology before embarking on a distinguished two-decade career in professional tournament poker. During her time in high-stakes competition, she amassed over $4 million in tournament earnings, won a World Series of Poker gold bracelet in 2004, and secured victories at the 2004 World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions and the 2010 National Heads-Up Poker Championship. Following her retirement from tournament poker after 2010, she transitioned into corporate consulting, public speaking, and venture capital, serving as a Special Partner focused on decision science at First Round Capital Partners while writing instructional books and mainstream decision-science works.
Duke combines insights from cognitive-behavioral decision science with practical frameworks derived from competitive risk management. A recurring theme across her writing is the distinction between decision quality and decision outcome, urging readers to eliminate outcome bias when evaluating past choices. In addition to analyzing risk and probability, her work focuses on overcoming cognitive biases, developing structured tools for evaluating options, and normalizing strategic stepping away—a key concept featured in Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, which seeks to rehabilitate quitting as a rational decision tool.
4 books in catalog
Decision-making strategy under conditions of uncertainty forms the centerpiece of practical non-fiction exploring cognitive psychology and risk evaluation. Author and decision strategist Annie Duke bridges academic behavioral science and high-stakes real-world strategy to help readers navigate choices when outcome certainty is impossible. Her national bestseller, Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts, introduced general audiences to framing decisions through probabilistic thinking rather than emotional bias or hindsight.
Born Anne LaBarr Lederer on September 13, 1965, Duke pursued academic studies in cognitive psychology before embarking on a distinguished two-decade career in professional tournament poker. During her time in high-stakes competition, she amassed over $4 million in tournament earnings, won a World Series of Poker gold bracelet in 2004, and secured victories at the 2004 World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions and the 2010 National Heads-Up Poker Championship. Following her retirement from tournament poker after 2010, she transitioned into corporate consulting, public speaking, and venture capital, serving as a Special Partner focused on decision science at First Round Capital Partners while writing instructional books and mainstream decision-science works.
Duke combines insights from cognitive-behavioral decision science with practical frameworks derived from competitive risk management. A recurring theme across her writing is the distinction between decision quality and decision outcome, urging readers to eliminate outcome bias when evaluating past choices. In addition to analyzing risk and probability, her work focuses on overcoming cognitive biases, developing structured tools for evaluating options, and normalizing strategic stepping away—a key concept featured in Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, which seeks to rehabilitate quitting as a rational decision tool.
